Thursday, September 18, 2008

Week 4 Review of Predictions by FM Robby Adamson

Let's look quickly to see how I did on my predictions. I think I did pretty well overall but of course the league always has surprises.

Monday Matches -

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Queens Pioneers Queens won 3-1, I predicted 2.5-1.5

2. Seattle Sluggers vs Chicago Blaze Seattle won 2.5-1.5, I predicted the same

I was correct in predicting who won both of these matches, though I did think Baltimore would fare a little better. This easily could have been a 3.5/4 match had Vovsha accepted the draw offered or perhaps even won in a game where he was clearly pressing.

Although Tate took care of business against the youngster Michael Lee, Chicago did not fare that well on the other boards. I have not analyzed Mitkov's interesting game against Nakamura, but it seemed to be very complex, where Hikaru excels, even if the computer analysis might beat otherwise. Remember, computer analysis is not really relevant in a lot of these games because you are dealing with humans!

3. New Jersey Knockouts vs Boston Blitz New Jersey won 3-1, I predicted a tie

I didnt see this coming at all. I thought Esserman was a lock to win given his current hot streak, but I didnt see the other 3 games ending in such disasterous fashion for Boston. LarryC may not have had his ice coffee before the game - the only possible explanation for losing a piece and having to sac his Q. Boards 2 and 3 pressed given the match situation and it just didnt work out.

4. Carolina Cobras vs New York Knights Carolina won 4-0, I predicted tie 2-2

The Surprise of the 2008 Season. If anyone saw this coming, I want to know who they are, their social security number, and their hottest stock tip. A 4-0 sweep is a very uncommon occurrence no matter who the losing team is, and completely unexpected given the usual strength of the NY team. Congrats to Carolina (our next opponent). NY should bounce back from this forgettable performance though they need to start putting wins together in the East division.

FYI: Did you know that Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are 2-0?? Say it aint so. I fully expect AZ to lay their usual egg now that they are playing a real team (Redskins).

5. Dallas Destiny vs Miami Sharks Dallas won 2.5-1.5, I predicted a tie

The games here looked very competitive. Dallas continues to impress, this time beating USCL guru Becerra, while the other games all ended in fighting draws.

6. Philadelphia Inventors vs San Francisco Mechanics San Francisco won 3.5-0.5, I predicted SF wins 3-1

Youth was served with wins on boards 3 and 4 from Shanky and Danky. Kudrin never had a chance for any real edge against Wolff, and thus, there went Philly's chances. On a brighter note my Phillies have a good chance to make the playoffs.

7. Tennessee Tempo vs Arizona Scorpions Arizona won 2.5-1.5, I predicted the same

Congrats to my Scorpions. We defeated a tough Tempo team by a close margin. Kudos for Joel Johnson's excellent surprise against FM John Bick, as well as IM Rogelio Barcenilla, even though he lost, for facing 2 strong GMs back to back weeks with black, this week Jan Ehlvest (thanks for black- is it time for my root canal?).
Until next week!


Mark Ginsburg said...

Regarding Nakamura-Mitkov,

Nakamura's play didn't make sense at first glance, in particular the loosening sequence 10. f5, 12. h3, and 13. b4. There should probably be one giant question mark attached to the 'plan' (of confusing black).

The cold-blooded computer shows it was all a bluff and Mitkov could have won efficiently with 18...Rac8!. In all lines black quickly breaks through on the kingside, e5-e4 is happening and white can't stop it. Material gain and/or the utter ruination of white's position is forced.

The most gruesome variation is 18...Rac8 19. Qd2 (19. Qe2 e4 just wins) 19...Nc5! 20. Nc3 e4 21. Nxd5 Bxg3+ 22. Kg1 exf3!! and wins.

Another grotesque line is 19. Qb3 e4 20. Qxd5+ Rf7 21. Rxe4 Bxg3+ 22. Kh1 and now the bishop retreat to c7 or b8 decides.

s higgins said...

That was a sexy grind-down by Robz against FM Todd Andrews on board 3, and what a game between Scorpion Joel Johnson and Tennessee's FM John Bick!

Congrats to the Scorpions for scoring the W this week with some extra style points.